兴证宏观：鲍威尔Jackson Hole发言全文及翻译

美东时间8月25日10:05，鲍威尔在Jackson Hole全球央行年会上就通胀、经济和政策展望发言，我们对发言全文进行翻译，并标明要点、附上图表，以供投资者参考。

在去年的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上，我发表了简短而直接的讲话。今年我的发言会稍长一些，但信息是一样的：美联储的职责是将通胀率降至我们的2%目标，我们会做到这一点。过去一年，我们大幅收紧了政策。尽管通胀率已从峰值回落，这是一个可喜的进展，但通胀率仍然过高。我们做好了准备，在适当的时候进一步提高利率(raise rates further if appropriate)，并打算将政策维持在一个限制性的水平上，直到我们确信通胀正朝着我们的目标持续下降。

Good morning. At last year's Jackson Hole symposium， I delivered a brief， direct message. My remarks this year will be a bit longer， but the message is the same: It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal， and we will do so. We have tightened policy significantly over the past year. Although inflation has moved down from its peak—a welcome development—it remains too high. We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate， and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.

今天，我将回顾我们迄今为止所取得的进展，并讨论我们在实现双重任务目标时所面临的前景和不确定性。最后，我将总结这对政策的意义。鉴于我们已经取得的进展，在接下来的FOMC会议上，我们可以在评估新数据以及不断变化的前景和风险时谨慎行事。

Today I will review our progress so far and discuss the outlook and the uncertainties we face as we pursue our dual mandate goals. I will conclude with a summary of what this means for policy. Given how far we have come， at upcoming meetings we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlook and risks.

迄今为止通胀下行的复盘

The Decline in Inflation So Far

持续的高通胀最初是由于强劲的需求与因新冠而限制的供给之间的冲突而产生的。当FOMC于2022年3月提高政策利率时，很明显，降低通胀将取决于两方面：第一方面是与新冠相关的史无前例的需求和供应扭曲的缓解(unwinding of the unprecedented pandemic-related demand and supply distortions)，第二方面是货币政策收紧对总需求的放缓，让供应有时间赶上。这两股力量现在正在共同努力降低通货膨胀，即使最近的数据看到一些有利的迹象，但这一过程仍然有很长的路要走(the process still has a long way to go， even with the more favorable recent readings)。

The ongoing episode of high inflation initially emerged from a collision between very strong demand and pandemic-constrained supply. By the time the Federal Open Market Committee raised the policy rate in March 2022, it was clear that bringing down inflation would depend on both the unwinding of the unprecedented pandemic-related demand and supply distortions and on our tightening of monetary policy， which would slow the growth of aggregate demand， allowing supply time to catch up. While these two forces are now working together to bring down inflation， the process still has a long way to go， even with the more favorable recent readings.

美国整体PCE同比于2022年6月达到7%的峰值，截至今年7月下降至3.3%，与全球趋势一致（图1A）[1]。自2022年初以来，俄乌冲突的影响一直是全球总体通胀变化的主要驱动因素。整体通胀是家庭和企业最直接相关的，因此这种下降是一个非常好的消息。但食品和能源价格受到持续波动的全球因素的影响，可能会提供有关通胀走向的误导性信号。在我下面的发言中，我将重点关注核心PCE，也就是剔除食品和能源的部分。

On a 12-month basis， U.S. total， or "headline，" PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation peaked at 7 percent in June 2022 and declined to 3.3 percent as of July， following a trajectory roughly in line with global trends (figure 1, panel A). The effects of Russia's war against Ukraine have been a primary driver of the changes in headline inflation around the world since early 2022. Headline inflation is what households and businesses experience most directly， so this decline is very good news. But food and energy prices are influenced by global factors that remain volatile， and can provide a misleading signal of where inflation is headed. In my remaining comments， I will focus on core PCE inflation， which omits the food and energy components.

核心PCE同比于2022年2月达到5.4%的峰值，并在今年7月逐渐下降至4.3%（图1B）。6月和7月核心通胀读数低值得欢迎，但两个月的良好数据只是建立通胀持续下降以实现我们目标的信心的开始。我们尚不知道这些较低的读数将持续到什么程度，也不知道未来几个季度潜在的通胀将稳定在什么水平。12个月的核心通胀率仍处于高位，要恢复价格稳定，还有大量进一步的工作要做。

On a 12-month basis， core PCE inflation peaked at 5.4 percent in February 2022 and declined gradually to 4.3 percent in July (figure 1, panel B). The lower monthly readings for core inflation in June and July were welcome， but two months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal. We can't yet know the extent to which these lower readings will continue or where underlying inflation will settle over coming quarters. Twelve-month core inflation is still elevated， and there is substantial further ground to cover to get back to price stability.

为了理解后续通胀进展的影响因素，有必要分别研究核心PCE的三大组成部分——商品通胀、住房服务通胀和所有其他服务（有时称为非住房服务）通胀（图2）。

To understand the factors that will likely drive further progress， it is useful to separately examine the three broad components of core PCE inflation—inflation for goods， for housing services， and for all other services， sometimes referred to as non-housing services (figure 2).

核心商品通胀大幅下降，尤其是耐用品，因为紧缩的货币政策和供需失调的缓慢缓解(both tighter monetary policy and the slow unwinding of supply and demand dislocations)正在导致通胀下降。机动车行业就是一个很好的例子。新冠初期，在低利率、财政转移支付、减少面对面服务支出以及人们不再使用公共交通和居住在城市等因素的支撑下，对车辆的需求急剧上升。但由于半导体短缺，汽车供应实际上下降了。汽车价格飙升，大量被压抑的需求出现。随着新冠及其影响的减弱，产量和库存有所增加，供应也有所改善。与此同时，较高的利率也打压了需求。[2]从最后的结果来看，由于这些供需因素的综合影响，机动车通胀大幅下降。

Core goods inflation has fallen sharply， particularly for durable goods， as both tighter monetary policy and the slow unwinding of supply and demand dislocations are bringing it down. The motor vehicle sector provides a good illustration. Earlier in the pandemic， demand for vehicles rose sharply， supported by low interest rates， fiscal transfers， curtailed spending on in-person services， and shifts in preference away from using public transportation and from living in cities. But because of a shortage of semiconductors， vehicle supply actually fell. Vehicle prices spiked， and a large pool of pent-up demand emerged. As the pandemic and its effects have waned， production and inventories have grown， and supply has improved. At the same time， higher interest rates have weighed on demand. Interest rates on auto loans have nearly doubled since early last year， and customers report feeling the effect of higher rates on affordability. On net， motor vehicle inflation has declined sharply because of the combined effects of these supply and demand factors.

整体核心商品通胀也出现了类似的形态。随着时间的推移，货币紧缩的影响应该会更加充分地显现出来(the effects of monetary restraint should show through more fully over time)。过去两个月核心商品价格下跌，但12个月移动平均来看，核心商品通胀仍远高于新冠前的水平。核心商品通胀的放缓需要持续的进展(Sustained progress is needed)，并需要采取限制性货币政策来实现这一进展。

Similar dynamics are playing out for core goods inflation overall. As they do， the effects of monetary restraint should show through more fully over time. Core goods prices fell the past two months， but on a 12-month basis， core goods inflation remains well above its pre-pandemic level. Sustained progress is needed， and restrictive monetary policy is called for to achieve that progress.

在对利率高度敏感的房地产领域，货币政策的效果在启动后不久就显现出来。2022 年抵押贷款利率翻了一番，导致新屋开工量和销售量下降，房价增速直线下降。市场租金的增长很快达到顶峰，然后稳步下降（图3）[3]。

In the highly interest-sensitive housing sector， the effects of monetary policy became apparent soon after liftoff. Mortgage rates doubled over the course of 2022, causing housing starts and sales to fall and house price growth to plummet. Growth in market rents soon peaked and then steadily declined (figure 3).

住房服务通胀滞后于这些变化，这是典型的，但最近开始下降。这一分项反映了所有租户支付的租金，以及对自住房屋可赚取的等价租金的估计。[4]由于租赁周转缓慢，市场租金增长的下降需要一段时间才能影响整体通胀指标。市场租金放缓最近才开始体现在这一指标上。大约在过去一年中，新租赁租金增长放缓可以被认为是“正在进行中(in the pipeline)”，并将影响来年的住房服务通胀。展望未来，如果市场租金增长稳定在新冠前的水平附近，住房服务通胀也应下降至新冠前的水平。我们将继续密切关注市场租金数据，以寻找住房服务通胀上行和下行风险的信号。

Measured housing services inflation lagged these changes， as is typical， but has recently begun to fall. This inflation metric reflects rents paid by all tenants， as well as estimates of the equivalent rents that could be earned from homes that are owner occupied. Because leases turn over slowly， it takes time for a decline in market rent growth to work its way into the overall inflation measure. The market rent slowdown has only recently begun to show through to that measure. The slowing growth in rents for new leases over roughly the past year can be thought of as "in the pipeline" and will affect measured housing services inflation over the coming year. Going forward， if market rent growth settles near pre-pandemic levels， housing services inflation should decline toward its pre-pandemic level as well. We will continue to watch the market rent data closely for a signal of the upside and downside risks to housing services inflation.

最后一个类别是非住房服务，占核心PCE指数权重的一半以上，包括广泛的服务，例如医疗保健、食品服务、交通和住宿。该分项十二个月通胀率一直居高不下。然而，过去三个月和六个月的通胀率有所下降，这是令人鼓舞的。迄今为止，非住房服务通胀下降较温和的部分原因是，其中许多服务受全球供应链瓶颈的影响较小，并且通常比住房或耐用品等其他部门对利率的敏感性较低。这些服务的生产也是相对劳动密集型的，劳动力市场仍然紧张(labor market remains tight)。 考虑到该分项的规模，取得进一步进展(some further progress here will be essential)对于恢复价格稳定至关重要。随着时间的推移，限制性货币政策将有助于使总供给和总需求恢复平衡(restrictive monetary policy will help bring aggregate supply and demand back into better balance)，从而减轻这一关键部门的通胀压力。

The final category， non-housing services， accounts for over half of the core PCE index and includes a broad range of services， such as health care， food services， transportation， and accommodations. Twelve-month inflation in this sector has moved sideways since liftoff. Inflation measured over the past three and six months has declined， however， which is encouraging. Part of the reason for the modest decline of non-housing services inflation so far is that many of these services were less affected by global supply chain bottlenecks and are generally thought to be less interest sensitive than other sectors such as housing or durable goods. Production of these services is also relatively labor intensive， and the labor market remains tight. Given the size of this sector， some further progress here will be essential to restoring price stability. Over time， restrictive monetary policy will help bring aggregate supply and demand back into better balance， reducing inflationary pressures in this key sector.

展望

The Outlook

展望未来，尽管与新冠相关的扰动因素的进一步缓解将继续对通胀造成一定的下行压力，但限制性货币政策可能将发挥越来越重要的作用。要使通胀率持续回落到2%，预计需要一段时间的经济增长低于趋势水平(a period of below-trend economic growth)，以及劳动力市场一定程度的疲软(some softening)。

Turning to the outlook， although further unwinding of pandemic-related distortions should continue to put some downward pressure on inflation， restrictive monetary policy will likely play an increasingly important role. Getting inflation sustainably back down to 2 percent is expected to require a period of below-trend economic growth as well as some softening in labor market conditions.

经济增长Economic growth

限制性货币政策收紧了金融条件，支持了低于趋势增长的预期。[5]自去年的研讨会以来，两年期实际收益率上升了约250个基点，长期实际收益率也上升了近150个基点。[6]除利率变化外，银行贷款标准也有所收紧，贷款增长大幅放缓。[7]这种广义金融条件的紧缩通常会导致经济活动增长放缓，在本轮周期中也有这种迹象。例如，工业生产增长放缓，住宅投资额在过去五个季度中逐季下降（图4）。

Restrictive monetary policy has tightened financial conditions， supporting the expectation of below-trend growth. Since last year's symposium， the two-year real yield is up about 250 basis points， and longer-term real yields are higher as well—by nearly 150 basis points. Beyond changes in interest rates， bank lending standards have tightened， and loan growth has slowed sharply. Such a tightening of broad financial conditions typically contributes to a slowing in the growth of economic activity， and there is evidence of that in this cycle as well. For example， growth in industrial production has slowed， and the amount spent on residential investment has declined in each of the past five quarters (figure 4).

但是，我们也注意到经济可能并未如预期般降温的迹象(economy may not be cooling as expected)。 今年到目前为止，GDP（国内生产总值）的增长高于预期，也高于长期趋势，最近的消费者支出读数尤其强劲。此外，在过去18个月急剧减速后，住房部门正显示出回暖的迹象。如果有更多证据表明经济增长持续高于趋势(persistently above-trend growth)，那么通胀方面的进一步进展就会面临风险，并可能需要进一步收紧货币政策(could warrant further tightening of monetary policy)。

But we are attentive to signs that the economy may not be cooling as expected. So far this year， GDP (gross domestic product) growth has come in above expectations and above its longer-run trend， and recent readings on consumer spending have been especially robust. In addition， after decelerating sharply over the past 18 months， the housing sector is showing signs of picking back up. Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy.

劳动力市场The labor market

劳动力市场的再平衡在过去一年持续进行，但仍未完成(remains incomplete)。 由于25至54岁工人的参与率提高，以及移民人数回升至新冠前的水平，劳动力供应有所改善。事实上，处于黄金工作年龄段的女性劳动力参与率在6月份创下了历史新高。劳动力需求也有所放缓。职位空缺仍然很高，但呈下降趋势。职位增长(Payroll job growth)明显放缓。在过去六个月中，总工作时数走平，平均每周工作时间已降至新冠前的下限， 反映出劳动力市场状况逐渐正常化（图 5）。

The rebalancing of the labor market has continued over the past year but remains incomplete. Labor supply has improved， driven by stronger participation among workers aged 25 to 54 and by an increase in immigration back toward pre-pandemic levels. Indeed， the labor force participation rate of women in their prime working years reached an all-time high in June. Demand for labor has moderated as well. Job openings remain high but are trending lower. Payroll job growth has slowed significantly. Total hours worked has been flat over the past six months， and the average workweek has declined to the lower end of its pre-pandemic range， reflecting a gradual normalization in labor market conditions (figure 5).

这种再平衡缓解了工资压力。一系列衡量指标的工资增长继续放缓，尽管是逐步放缓（图6）。虽然名义工资增长最终必须放缓到与2%的通胀率相一致的水平，但对家庭而言，重要的是实际工资增长。尽管名义工资增长放缓，但随着通胀下降，实际工资增长一直在增加(real wage growth has been increasing as inflation has fallen)。

This rebalancing has eased wage pressures. Wage growth across a range of measures continues to slow， albeit gradually (figure 6). While nominal wage growth must ultimately slow to a rate that is consistent with 2 percent inflation， what matters for households is real wage growth. Even as nominal wage growth has slowed， real wage growth has been increasing as inflation has fallen.

预计劳动力市场的再平衡将继续下去(expect this labor market rebalancing to continue)。有证据表明，劳动力市场的紧张状况不再缓解，这也可能要求采取货币政策加以应对(tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could also call for a monetary policy response)。

We expect this labor market rebalancing to continue. Evidence that the tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could also call for a monetary policy response.

前进道路上的不确定性和风险管理

Uncertainty and Risk Management

along the Path Forward

我们的通胀目标是并且将继续维持（is and will remain）在2%。 我们致力于实现并维持足够严格的货币政策立场，以便随着时间的推移将通胀降至这一水平。当然，实时了解何时达到这样的立场是具有挑战。所有紧缩周期都面临一些共同的挑战。例如，实际利率现在已经为正，且远高于主流估计的中性政策利率。我们认为当前的政策立场是限制性的，给经济活动、就业和通胀带来下行压力。但我们无法确认中性利率的位置，因此约束性政策的精确程度始终存**在不确定性（here is always uncertainty about the precise level of monetary policy restraint）。**

Two percent is and will remain our inflation target. We are committed to achieving and sustaining a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to that level over time. It is challenging， of course， to know in real time when such a stance has been achieved. There are some challenges that are common to all tightening cycles. For example， real interest rates are now positive and well above mainstream estimates of the neutral policy rate. We see the current stance of policy as restrictive， putting downward pressure on economic activity， hiring， and inflation. But we cannot identify with certainty the neutral rate of interest， and thus there is always uncertainty about the precise level of monetary policy restraint.

由于货币紧缩对经济活动，尤其是通胀影响的滞后时间存在不确定性，这一评估变得更加复杂。自去年Jackson Hole研讨会以来，联储已将政策利率提高了300个基点（其中过去7个月提高了100个基点）并进行了缩表。但对这些滞后因素的广泛估计表明，可能还会有更大的阻力(may be significant further drag in the pipeline)。

That assessment is further complicated by uncertainty about the duration of the lags with which monetary tightening affects economic activity and especially inflation. Since the symposium a year ago， the Committee has raised the policy rate by 300 basis points， including 100 basis points over the past seven months. And we have substantially reduced the size of our securities holdings. The wide range of estimates of these lags suggests that there may be significant further drag in the pipeline.

除了这些传统的政策不确定性来源之外，本轮特有的供需错位通过影响通胀和劳动力市场使得复杂性进一步增加。 例如，到目前为止，职位空缺大幅减少，但失业率却没有增加——这令人欣喜但历史上并不多见的结果，似乎反应出劳动力存在大量过剩需求(large excess demand for labor)。此外，有证据表明，与近几十年来相比，通胀对强劲的劳动力市场对更加敏感。[8]这种改变的持续性存疑(these changing dynamics may or may not persist)，这种不确定性要求决策更加灵活(underscores the need for agile policymaking)。

Beyond these traditional sources of policy uncertainty， the supply and demand dislocations unique to this cycle raise further complications through their effects on inflation and labor market dynamics. For example， so far， job openings have declined substantially without increasing unemployment—a highly welcome but historically unusual result that appears to reflect large excess demand for labor. In addition， there is evidence that inflation has become more responsive to labor market tightness than was the case in recent decades. These changing dynamics may or may not persist， and this uncertainty underscores the need for agile policymaking.

这些新旧的不确定性，使我们平衡货币政策过度紧缩风险与紧缩过少风险的任务变得更加复杂。做得太少可能会让高于目标的通胀变得根深蒂固，并最终需要货币政策以高昂的成本牺牲就业。做得太多可能对经济造成不必要的损害。

These uncertainties， both old and new， complicate our task of balancing the risk of tightening monetary policy too much against the risk of tightening too little. Doing too little could allow above-target inflation to become entrenched and ultimately require monetary policy to wring more persistent inflation from the economy at a high cost to employment. Doing too much could also do unnecessary harm to the economy.

结论

Conclusion

如通常一般，我们正在多云的天空下依靠星星导航。在这种情况下，风险管理至关重要。在未来的货币政策会议上，我们将根据总体数据、不断变化的前景和风险来评估我们的进展。基于此，我们将谨慎行事，决定是否进一步收紧货币政策，还是保持政策利率不变并等待进一步的数据。 恢复价格稳定对于实现货币政策双重目标至关重要。我们需要价格稳定，以实现让所有人受益的持续强劲的劳动力市场环境。

As is often the case， we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies. In such circumstances， risk-management considerations are critical. At upcoming meetings， we will assess our progress based on the totality of the data and the evolving outlook and risks. Based on this assessment， we will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or， instead， to hold the policy rate constant and await further data. Restoring price stability is essential to achieving both sides of our dual mandate. We will need price stability to achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.

我们将坚持下去，直到工作完成。

We will keep at it until the job is done.

注释

1. 对PCE通胀的描述包括根据现有信息（7 月CPI和PPI）对2023年7月PCE数值的估计。2023年7月的PCE通胀数据将由经济分析局于8月31日公布。

2. 例如，最新密歇根大学消费者调查中，25%的受访者表示，由于利率提高和信贷条件收紧，目前不是购买新车的好时机，而在2021年，这一比例仅为4%。8月初步调查来自http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu.

3. 租金增长放缓的原因可能是多方面的。其中部分原因可能是利率上升，以及过去几年家庭实际收入增长放缓。但疫后正常化也可能是其中的一个原因。例如，与居家办公有关的住房偏好转变很可能导致住房需求增加，这反映在早些时候租金的大幅上涨上。随着需求转变的价格效应逐渐显现，租金增长率自然会向先前的趋势回落。最后，从历史标准来看，多户住宅的建设速度相当快，供应量的增加也可能减轻了市场租金的压力。

4. 住房服务的PCE价格既包括租户支付的租金，也包括房主自住住房的估算租金价值（以房主将房屋出租给租户后可获得的收入来衡量）。详参NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts (Washington: BEA， December)， pp.

5. 关于金融条件收紧如何影响经济活动的例子，详参Andrea Ajello， Michele Cavallo， Giovanni Favara， William B. Peterman， John W. Schindler IV， and Nitish R. Sinha (2023)， "A New Index to Measure U.S. Financial Conditions，" FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System， June 30).

6. 指2年期和10年期通胀保值国债收益率的变化。

7. 随着利率提高，非银行贷款条件也发生了变化。例如，2022年开始到今年上半年，公共信贷市场上风险较高的债务（如杠杆贷款、投机级和无评级公司债券）净发行量下降。

8. 劳动力市场疲软和通货膨胀之间的关系，通常被称为菲利普斯曲线关系，可能是非线性的，在劳动力市场紧张的情况下会变陡。如果菲利普斯曲线以这种方式变陡，劳动力市场紧张程度的微小变化可能会导致通货膨胀发生更大的变化。很难实时准确地知道这种关系有多陡峭，也很难准确地知道随着劳动力市场紧张程度的变化，这种关系会如何演变。详参Christoph E. Boehm and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar (2022)， "Convex Supply Curves，" American Economic Review， vol. 112 (December)， pp. 3941–69; Pierpaolo Benigno and Gauti B. Eggertsson (2023)， "It's Baaack: The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve (PDF)，" NBER Working Paper Series 31197 (Cambridge， Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research， April); and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau， Lu Zhang， and Lars-Alexander Kuehn (2018)， "Endogenous Disasters，" American Economic Review， vol. 108 (August)， pp. 2212–45.

风险提示：模型预测误差与数据偏差超预期，文章翻译偏差。

本文源自：券商研报精选